James MacGlashan

8 Beliefs discovered

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MY BELIEFS

Before you can conclude the right behavior, you must ascertain what your fundamental intrinsic values are that define the decision making problem. Once defined, rational reasoning will lead you to the best way to maximize those values.

James MacGlashan

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The curse of induction is that we can always imagine new hypotheses and it is therefore impossible to be able to consider every conceivable explanation. Use quality predictive models when you have them, but in all likelihood there is a better one out there.

James MacGlashan

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People often base decisions on past events and when those past events predict future consequences that can be useful. But it's important not to conflate the past with the justification. Punish someone to alter their behavior or deter others, not for the unchangeable past itself.

James MacGlashan

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This is a demand of inductive reasoning. Evidence supports hypotheses by how well they are predicted by it. If your hypothesis is so ill-defined that you could not predict the evidence you claim in favor of it, then it's not evidence for it.

James MacGlashan

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Reusing successful norms in the past reduces the amount of complex decision making we must do at any moment. But that a policy was successful in previous similar situations doesn't mean it's the best policy for the current one.

James MacGlashan

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Much of the world is uncertain and sometimes the best behavior under uncertainty can result in bad outcomes. Good behavior is not to be punished, because we would like to see it continued in the future. Conversely we should criticize malicious intent, even if not successful.

James MacGlashan

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If you seek to understand a complex event, a more complex explanation will demand even more justification for it being true.

James MacGlashan

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There are an infinite number of propositions we could imagine to be true, but most of them will be false. If your belief doesn't explain or predict anything, then there is no reason to believe it's not in the false pile and furthermore can be safely ignored, even if true.

James MacGlashan

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